2026 Award Predictions

With the 2025-2026 NBA season coming to a close, I figure it’s time I put out my end-of-season award predictions before the finalists are revealed later this month. I will be predicting every single major award along with All-NBA, All-Defensive, and All-Rookie teams. This season has been awesome, and some of these awards are still being fought for right now. In addition, the 65 game rule is going to make things extremely interesting with who exactly can or will qualify for these marks by season’s end.

I’m going to leave this here since it’s going to be the biggest question mark of the next couple of weeks, I am not going to include Luka Doncic on my list. I don’t think it’s impossible for his “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge” to be reviewed and accepted. However, for the sake of not knowing, I am not going to include him.

Rookie of the Year:

The 2025 draft class was loaded with both front-end star talent and a deep pool of impactful role players who could project to be even more some day. However, this year’s race has been between 2 players and 2 players only: Dallas’ Cooper Flagg and Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel.

Quite honestly, I wouldn’t be upset with a co-Rookie of the Year award here, as the former teammates at Duke have been absolutely incredible for their respective squads. For Flagg, his scoring for his age is something we’ve never seen before, at least not since LeBron James in Cleveland over two decades ago. Flagg has averaged 20.8 points per game, 6.6 rebounds per game, and 4.5 assists per game. There have been two other players in NBA history to average 20+ points, 6+ rebounds, and 4+ assists in their rookie seasons - Michael Jordan in 1984-85, and Luka Doncic in 2018-19. Back to the LeBron point, he’s the youngest player to record 45+ points in a game ever, and also the second-youngest to ever score 25 or more points on Christmas Day. He has been everything the media has hyped him up to be and more for the Mavericks.

For Knueppel, he’s been averaging 18.8 points per game himself, in addition to 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists. However, the big notion for Kon is the Hornets’ sudden success in the new calendar year. Since January 1st, the Hornets have posted a ridiculous 11.7 net rating, which is best in the league by a decent margin. The Hornets are a +5.8 with him on the court, and a +2.3 with him off. His impact on winning, along with his incredible individual play, have given Flagg a good challenge in this race. Unfortunately, I just can’t give him the award when Flagg has just been so awesome all season, regardless of team situations. It’s extremely close, though.

2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg.

Most Improved Player:

Most Improved Player, similarly to the Rookie of the Year race, has been just as competitive and fun. We saw players like Jalen Johnson and Jalen Duren go from awesome, fun young guys to potential All-NBA caliber players who both easily made the All-Star game this year.

Jalen Johnson’s stats: 22.8 PPG (2.9 point increase), 10.3 RPG (0.3 point increase), and 8.0 APG (3.0 point increase).

Jalen Duren’s stats: 19.5 PPG (7.7 point increase), 10.6 RPG (0.3 point increase), and 1.9 APG (0.8 point decrease).

However, I don’t enjoy seeing this award given to players who were already good & expected to make these jumps anyway. I like seeing guys who find themselves a real home after years of floating aimlessly across the league and settle into a role before becoming serious impact players for the teams that gave them a real chance.

My candidates for Most Improved Player: Bucks’ Ryan Rollins and Hawks’ Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Around this time a couple years ago, Ryan Rollins was sitting on waivers after Washington waived him when he got caught shoplifting from a Target. The Bucks took a shot on him, and after a minimal role in 2024-25, Rollins has become easily Milwaukee’s second-best player, becoming an extremely impactful player on both sides of the ball for a Milwaukee team devoid of any serious non-Giannis talent on the roster.

Ryan Rollins’ stats: 17.1 PPG (10.9 point increase!), 4.6 RPG (2.7 point increase), and 5.6 APG (3.7 point increase).

Alexander-Walker’s path was carved a little differently. He spent the first few years of his career being a throw-in across multiple trades, spending 5 years across New Orleans and Utah before being sent to Minnesota as a throw-in in the Conley-Russell-Westbrook 3--team trade in 2023. In Minnesota, Alexander-Walker became an important player off the bench for a team that would make back-to-back Western Conference Finals during his tenure on the team. In free agency last year, he would sign a long-term contract with the Atlanta Hawks, and after Trae Young went down with an injury (and would eventually be traded to Washington), Alexander-Walker was given significantly more on-ball responsibility, and he answered that call in a meaningful way.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s stats: 20.6 PPG (11.2 point increase!), 3.5 RPG (0.3 point increase), and 3.7 APG (1.0 point increase).

Between these two, the Most Improved Player award has been nearly a 50/50 for me for a couple of months. As much as I love Rollins’ game, the way Alexander-Walker has helped turn Atlanta’s season around combined with just how shocking his rise has been give him a decent edge in this race for me.

2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks.

Defensive Player of the Year:

This award, unlike the last two, has been fairly uncontested for a majority of the year. My Defensive Player of the Year is Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs are on pace to clear 60 wins this season, the first time they’ve reached that mark since 2016-17, and Wembanyama has been almost the sole reason that they’ll reach that feat. The Spurs are an astonishing 13.6 points worse with Wembanyama off the floor than they are when he’s on, including a 9 point defensive differential. He’ll lead the league in blocks again, this season by well over 1 per game. Teams shoot 6.4% worse against him at the rim, and teams attempt 4.5% less shots at the rim when he’s on the floor. He’s a one-man defense, a true anchor in the sense of the word, and that’s why he should win this award unanimously.

2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs.

Sixth Man of the Year:

Of all the awards so far, this is the one I’ve paid the least attention to this year. Here are my five potential nominees:

• Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

• Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat

• Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets

• Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves

• Tim Hardaway Jr., Denver Nuggets

Again, this award has been in the rear view for me all season, so I’m not as confident in a selection as the others. If I had to guess who will win it, my bet would be on Keldon Johnson. However, the most impactful player on this list, in my opinion, has been Jaime Jaquez Jr. In 71 games this season, he’s averaging 15.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 4.7 APG. The Heat are a +3.1 with Jaquez on the court and a +0.1 without him, a 3 point differential.

2025-26 Sixth Man of the Year: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat.

Coach of the Year:

Coach of the Year is a very interesting award. Similarly to Sixth Man, I think there are a plethora of guys you could nominate here, so here are my choices:

• Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

• Charles Lee, Charlotte Hornets

• JB Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons

• Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns

• Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder

Each of these guys has a different argument for why they deserve this award. Mitch Johnson took a young but promising Spurs team and turned them into 60+ wins, Charles Lee made Charlotte the best team in the league after the beginning of the new calendar year, Jordan Ott took what people presumed to be a dead Suns team and turned them into a hustling, defensive machine of a team that’ll likely make playoffs this season, JB Bickerstaff helped a rapidly improving Pistons squad implement new veteran talent and become the best team in the East, and Mark Daigneault helped OKC to the NBA’s best record while also dealing with the second-most injuries by any team in the league this year.

I want to stick with predicting who I think will actually win, but sometimes, that doesn’t fall in line with what I believe myself, and I don’t want the award to just be “Who won the most games this season?” So, I’m gonna reward the man who I think did the best job this season among these five coaches, who, in my opinion, is Hornets coach Charles Lee.

My 2025-26 NBA Coach of the Year: Charles Lee, Charlotte Hornets.

Executive of the Year:

I can’t lie to you guys, I’ve never really cared about this award. Similarly to Coach of the Year, it often feels more like a reflection of who the best team in the league is over who actually made the best or most impactful signings or trades. In fairness, you have to make great moves to be a great team, but I don’t think it should be mostly based on team performance. This year, I think the choice for Executive of the Year is actually not very close: it’s Brad Stevens by a mile.

Stevens was given a tall task this season; bring the Celtics under the second apron to avoid future penalties while keeping enough assets to be able to tool around the injured Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown next season. He pulled off a plethora of moves during the offseason, including sending Jrue Holiday to Portland and Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta, both for some second round picks and salaries. He took gambles on young talents who saw minimal playing time in the season prior, such as Neemias Queta and Luka Garza, and drafted Real Madrid’s Hugo Gonzalez in the late first round in the 2025 Draft, who has been a real impact player in limited minutes this season. Fast forward through the season, and Boston has a serious chance at making the Finals in a year a majority of fans, even their own, thought they’d be aiming for a top draft pick. Stevens took an expensive, aging roster and retooled them into a competitive, young, and inexpensive team poised for a serious playoff run after being written off by everybody before the season started. It'll be his second time winning this award in the last three years.

Most Valuable Player

The most important award in the league, and the one you’ve likely all been waiting for. This race is between 3 players:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• Victor Wembanyama

• Nikola Jokic

Shai’s seeking back-to-back MVPs this season, and he’s absolutely earned the honor to be in that conversation. He’s averaging 31.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 6.5 APG while shooting an astonishing 55.1% from the field (as a guard), as well as 38.0% from 3 and 88.1% from the line. The Thunder are the best team in the league record-wise, and they’ve done so while dealing with a plethora of injuries, including All-NBA star Jalen Williams and early-season Sixth Man candidate Ajay Williams, who have both missed significant time. Shai has been putting an injured Thunder team on his back while putting up one of the most efficient high volume scoring seasons by a guard we’ve ever seen and cementing himself as one of the greatest to ever do it.

For Wembanyama, this is his first season in this kind of territory, but the stats speak for themselves. This season, he’s averaging 24.9 points per game, 11.6 rebounds per game, and 3.1 assists per game, while also leading the league in blocks per game at 3.1, his third straight season leading the league in that category. His offensive numbers aren’t flashy, but what he provides on the defensive end may be similar, impact-wise, to what Shai’s doing for OKC on the offensive side. He’s already one of the best defenders in the history of the league, and it’s hard to say that doesn’t matter when the award is named the Most Valuable Player.

Finally, we have Jokic, whose video game numbers we have grown accustomed to over the years. This season, he’s averaging 27.9 points per game, 12.9 rebounds per game, and 10.9 assists per game. He leads the league in rebounds & assists per game. His numbers will always look like something you’d see on 2K, but with Denver sitting under both OKC and San Antonio, I can’t justify the case for a Jokic MVP this year, despite his dominance with the raw numbers.

That puts us in a head-to-head, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Victor Wembanyama for Most Valuable Player for the 2025-26 season. And personally, I think my decision on this versus has been quite clear for most of the last couple months.

My 2025-26 NBA Kia Most Valuable Player…

is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

All-NBA, All-Defense, and All-Rookie Teams:

I won’t be as descriptive with these awards as I have with the others, so to close out, here are my teams for each category:

All-NBA:

All-NBA 1st Team:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

• Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

• Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

• Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers

• Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets

All-NBA 2nd Team:

• Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

• Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

• Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

• Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

• Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

All-NBA 3rd Team:

• Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

• Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

• Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

• Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

• LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets

All-Defense:

All-Defensive 1st Team:

• Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

• Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves

• Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

• Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

• Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons

All-Defensive 2nd Team:

• Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers

• Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets

• Derrick White, Boston Celtics

• Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks

• Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

All-Rookie:

All-Rookie 1st Team:

• Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks

• Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

• VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers

• Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies

• Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors

All-Rookie 2nd Team:

• Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs

• Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans

• Maxime Raynaud, Sacramento Kings

• Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans

• Javon Small, Memphis Grizzlies

If you made it here, thank you for reading all the way through! Let me know what you would change, and drop a sub if you’re be interested in more NBA-related content. Thanks again, and I’ll hopefully see you next time.